Since the Top 8 finals system was introduced to the AFL in 1994, every team to win at least 13 games in a season has played in the AFL Finals, with the exceptional circumstances of Essendon in 2013, who won 14 games but were excluded from the Finals due to the supplements scandal.
Typically, 13 wins places a team in the 5th to 8th position bracket, but 5 clubs have finished in the Top 4 in the last 30 years with 13 wins; North Melbourne and Geelong finished 3rd and 4th in 1994 (Geelong ultimately bested North in a memorable Preliminary Final), Adelaide finished 4th in 1997 and won the Premiership (They also won 13 games in their flag year of 1998), Collingwood finished 4th in 2002 and lost the Grand Final, and St Kilda finished 4th in 2008 and made the Preliminary Final.
BUT, in 2024, we could see a first - A team miss the Top 8 with 13 wins.
It would be a rather appropriate ending to one of the most intense finals races in history, which got so ridiculous that at one stage Hawthorn set a record as being the first team in history to sit in 13th on the ladder with a winning record.... they were 9-8 after Round 18.
A 13-win non-finalist could happen in any one of 5 ways between the Western Bulldogs, Hawthorn, Carlton and Fremantle, with a mathematical miracle that the Brisbane Lions could drop out from 5th if they lose to Essendon at the Gabba, the Western Bulldogs, Hawks and Blues all win and Fremantle recovers 8 percent against the team in 2nd on the ladder:
The most realistic chances:
The Western Bulldogs, Hawthorn, Carlton and Fremantle all win, meaning Fremantle miss out on 13.5 wins.
The Bulldogs lose and Hawthorn, Carlton and Fremantle all win, meaning the Bulldogs miss out on 13 wins with the second-best percentage in the league.
Hawthorn lose to the Kangaroos (Thus confirming the Bulldogs for the Top 8) and Carlton and Fremantle both win, meaning the Hawks miss out on 13 wins.
Carlton lose to St Kilda and Fremantle win, meaning the Blues miss out on 13 wins.
Hawthorn and Carlton both lose and Fremantle win, then it would be down to whoever had the greater losing margin of the Hawks or Blues to drop out, with the Hawks holding something close to a 4-goal headstart.
Of course, all of this could become irrelevant if Fremantle lose to Port Adelaide in the season ender on Sunday night...
So as the old saying goes, if my grandmother had wheels, she'd be a bike.
For the record, the last team that didn't make the AFL Finals with at least 13 wins was Carlton in 1992, who won 14 games (Out of 22) but missed out on the old Top 6 when they were soundly beaten by eventual premiers West Coast at Subiaco in Round 24, allowing Hawthorn and St Kilda to jump the Blues on percentage...
A win would've given Carlton 4th place and a home final against the Eagles... alas, they finished 7th.
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